![STH Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio (STH-NUPL) | [DeV] chart preview](/_next/image?url=%2Fmedia%2Ffull%2F25183.png&w=3840&q=90&dpl=dpl_Jt27hmzh6tNsGuJ13vyBBWgv8XSW)
STH-NUPL tracks the unrealized profit or loss of short-term Bitcoin holders, providing insights into market sentiment and potential trend reversals using price-based analysis.
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The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) calculates the difference between market value and realized value for Bitcoin holders within 155 days. It uses a 150-day simple moving average to estimate the cost basis of short-term holders. The indicator oscillates around zero, with positive values indicating unrealized profits and negative values suggesting losses.
A smoothing period of 5 days is applied to reduce daily volatility. The moving average is calculated over 90 days to provide a medium-term trend signal. This approach creates a normalized ratio that reflects the sentiment of short-term market participants
Why it may be useful
The STH-NUPL is crucial for understanding market psychology and potential trend reversals. It provides a unique window into the behavior of short-term Bitcoin holders who are typically more sensitive to price fluctuations. Traders can use this indicator to identify potential capitulation points in bear markets and support zones in bull markets.
The metric helps distinguish between market optimism and despair by tracking unrealized profits and losses. It offers insights into whether short-term holders are likely to sell or hold their positions. This information can be valuable for timing market entries and exits
When to explore it
The STH-NUPL works best during significant market transitions and when analyzing short-term market sentiment. It is particularly useful in identifying potential trend reversals and market bottoms. Traders should pay close attention when the indicator approaches or crosses the zero line, as this can signal capitulation or trend changes.
The metric is most effective when combined with other technical and on-chain analysis tools. It provides valuable insights during volatile market conditions and can help traders understand the psychology of short-term holders. The indicator is especially powerful when used in conjunction with price action and other momentum indicators
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What we’ve verified
Access, alerts and repainting behaviour have not been independently verified for this indicator. Check the creator’s current publication and settings.
General descriptions and classifications are recovered research. Verified details above identify the specific checks we have completed. Check the creator’s current publication for later changes.
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